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    中稻将收获短期行情好

    产业分析 阅读:81 2019-09-11
    0 0

    还有半个多月,新季中籼稻就要大面积收割了。本季中晚籼稻行情会呈现什么走势?它能否给辛苦一季的农户带来欣喜?

    望江县鸦滩镇三联村种植大户鲁毛头这两天正忙着给田里的单季稻打第二遍药,“今年单季稻病虫害不是很重,近期主要防治稻飞虱和稻瘟病。”他给记者介绍,前期的高温热害对水利条件不好的100多亩水田造成影响,其余的400多亩单季稻生长还算正常,预计本季中籼稻单产1300—1350斤/亩(机口稻)。与鲁毛头一样,桐城市吕亭镇狮山村胡超种了1000多亩单季杂交稻,“现在大部分单季稻已经进入灌浆期,预计本月下旬就可以机收。”谈到本季中籼稻的单产水平,他与记者聊到,今年长时间的高温天气对约三分之二的单季稻生长造成不利影响,预计可能会小幅减产。

    记者从省农业农村厅了解到,我省农技部门调查显示,当前,全省移栽的一季稻生育进程总体处在抽穗灌浆期,早的已进入黄熟期;直播一季稻大多处于孕穗至抽穗期,生育进程比去年推迟两天左右,与常年基本相当。

    分布在江淮分水岭以及皖西南山区的150万亩单季稻田,其前茬以冬闲田和早熟品种为主,由于受到高温干旱天气叠加发生影响,受高温热害影响较重。若后期天气情况持续较好,全省单产总体水平有望高于去年。

    记者从省粮食和物资储备局了解到,8月26—9月1日,我省三等中籼稻市场收购价122元/百斤,与8月初相比,提高了1元/百斤;与去年同期相比,则小幅调降了1元/百斤。8月30日,国家粮食交易中心2016—2018年安徽产稻谷交易结果显示,2018年产中晚籼稻成交量31192吨,平均成交价格2522元/吨;与7月26日交易结果相比,2018年产中晚籼稻成交量增加了7966吨,平均成交价格下降了3元/吨。

    今年中晚稻拍卖启动晚,结束早,总拍卖期为3个多月。截至8月23日,国储稻谷拍卖总成交量高达1067万吨,同比增加292万吨,增幅37.68%,而且1067万吨的成交量已经远远超过去年全年的稻谷成交量。8月27日国家粮食交易中心发布公告称,自9月2日起,暂停2013—2016年最低收购价粳稻、2017—2018年最低收购价南方(江苏、安徽、河南)粳稻以及2013—2018年最低收购价中晚籼稻竞价销售。随着多数中晚稻国储拍卖暂停,后期市场供应或由宽松转为偏紧态势,提振中晚稻市场行情。

    国家粮油信息中心稻谷分析师周惠近期在铜陵举办的稻谷市场分析会上介绍,近年随着稻谷最低收购价下调,政策对于稻谷市场价格的支撑重心在逐步下降。与稻谷市场供需宽松叠加,2019/20年度稻米市场价格特别是陈稻市场价格仍面临下行压力,但价格下跌幅度可能小于上年。

    有业内人士分析,进入9月份后,随着天气转凉,贸易商备货量增加、大中专院校开学集中性消费增加、中秋国庆双节临近,食品厂消费用量也将有所增加,将会刺激大米走货量提升,米价或将有短期回升趋势,带动中晚稻价格稳中略涨。

    来源:中国饲料行业信息网;转载本文仅为传播更多信息为目的,并不表示本网认可文中作者观点。若转载文章作者有认为本网有不妥之处,请致电本网010-51289506联系,本网将立即与您磋商并解决相关事宜。

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