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    2019年湖南生猪出栏任务能完成吗?

    产销信息 2019-10-09 41 0 0
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    截至9月底,已有广东、湖南、四川、福建四省下达本年度最低出栏任务通知,分别为3400万头、4500万头、4008万头、1440万头,切实执行国务院下达的稳产保供目标。湖南的生猪出栏量居全国前三,本年度4500万头的最低任务是否能完成?

    本年度湖南省出栏任务同比降幅超两成

    9月27日,湖南省农业农村厅发布《关于下达各市州最低生猪出栏任务的通知》。通知表示为贯彻党中央、国务院关于稳定生猪生产保障市场供应的决策部署,加快落实省人民政府办公厅印发《关于促进生猪生产保障市场供应的政策措施》(湘政办明电〔2019〕28 号),进一步明确各市州、县市区人民政府“菜篮子”供应主体责任,根据国家确定“2022 年生猪出栏量、自给率不低于 2017 年和 2018 年平均水平”的总体目标、农业农村部下达湖南省的年度生猪生产任务量,结合各市州生猪产业发展基础、猪肉自给率、环境承载能力、疫病防控情况等因素,经省人民政府同意,现对湖南省各市州 2019 年最低生猪出栏任务予以明确(共4500万头,同比降幅24.92%)。此项任务将纳入“菜篮子”市长负责制考核及今明两年省政府督查考核。各市州的具体任务如图1所示。

    7月22日,湖南省统计局公布,受环保政策趋紧和非洲猪瘟疫情双重影响,生猪存、出栏量同比均有下降。上半年湖南省生猪出栏2724.60万头,同比减少259.62万头,下降8.7%;生猪存栏3267.8万头,减少399.76万头,下降10.9%;能繁母猪存栏312.1万头,减少55.07万头,下降15.0%。

    按统计局的数据来看,下半年湖南省至少要出栏1775.4万头,占全年最低任务量的39.45%。从疫情发布的时间来看,湖南省7-8月份比较严重,9月份仅有零星出现。在此期间,整体补栏量偏少,9月下旬开始,规模场补栏积极性提升,以采购仔猪及“商转母”为主要形式。出栏任务主要集中在第四季度。5月底,湖南省财政厅下达2019年第一批生猪调出大县奖励资金的通知(湘财预[2019]39号),湖南省共涉及64个县,奖励资金达到28883万元。具体数据如图2所示。从图中可以看出,生猪调出量排名前五位的分别是永州、衡阳、邵阳、岳阳、长沙,与图1中的出栏任务量比较匹配。

    2020年湖南省新增出栏量有限

    依据《国家发展改革委办公厅  农业农村部办公厅关于做好稳定生猪生产中央预算内投资安排工作的通知》(发改办农经〔2019〕899号)、《国家发展改革委农村经济司  农业农村部计划财务司关于做好2019年生猪规模化养殖场建设补助项目投资计划申报工作的通知》,为扎实抓好生猪稳产保供工作,我们按照符合国家通知明确的申报条件、尊重市州推荐意见、适当兼顾区域平衡、重点倾斜种猪场和地方品种猪场的原则,在市州申报的基础上,经会同省农业农村厅认真研究,制定了中央预算内投资计划安排建议方案,并经主任办公会审议通过,现予以公示(详http://fgw.hunan.gov.cn/fgw/xxgk_70899/gzdtf/gzdt/201909/t20190926_10467645.html)。以上方案共涉及14个市州的54个项目,计划2020年所有项目建成,则新增出栏量67.38万头,占本省正常年份总出栏量的比重不足1个百分点。其中新建项目23个,其他均是改建、扩建项目。所以新增出栏量对未来供应面的支撑力度有限。

    本年度湖南出栏任务尚且能完成

    从目前的情况来看,5月份及以后湖南省内仔猪补栏量有限,以规模场为主体。且“商转母”的周期最短需要10个月左右的时间,所以对第四季度生猪出栏量暂无利好支撑。疫情较严重的7-8月份,散户及规模场加快出栏节奏,出栏体重明显下滑,但出栏量增加,一定程度上利于年度任务的完成。据卓创了解,省内规模场四季度出栏量多数要低于三季度,且散户补栏持续谨慎,预计四季度出栏任务完成有一定难度。综上所述,湖南省本年度4500万头的最低出栏任务尚且能完成,但是冬季仔猪腹泻及其他疫病仍有不确定性因素。建议业者密切关注省内及当地政府的调运及补贴政策,保证生猪顺畅出栏。

    来源:卓创农业;作者:李霞;农产品期货网转载本文仅为传播更多信息为目的,并不表示本网认可文中作者观点。若转载文章作者有认为本网有不妥之处,请致电本网010-51289506联系,本网将立即与您磋商并解决相关事宜。

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