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    大闸蟹节前连续跌,节后暴跌!

    产业分析 2019-10-09 34 0 0
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    8月底,江苏等主产区大闸蟹陆续上市,目前已经上市两周多了。从水产养殖网初步了解的情况来看,今年大闸蟹养殖情况总体不错,产量预计比去年要好,但另一个方面的问题就随之而来了,那就是价格。从上市的两周多时间里江苏等主产区大闸蟹价格总体呈现高开低走,尤其是中秋节前,养殖户大量卖蟹,价格一跌再跌,中秋节后第一天价格继续大跌,甚至有人认为“这是最大一场蟹业雪崩”。大闸蟹行业真的有那么夸张吗?是确有其事还是杞人忧天?

    大闸蟹作为一个中高端的特种水产品,历来是老百姓送礼、消费的一个上档次的选择,大闸蟹的品牌化运作也是非常成功,尤其是阳澄湖那么点地方,每年能把阳澄湖大闸蟹炒到那么高的价格,除了阳澄湖以外,江苏安徽湖北等省还有其他很多大闸蟹品牌,比如说固城湖大闸蟹,洪泽湖大闸蟹等等。这些年受利润刺激、常规品种转型等因素影响,各地大闸蟹养殖规模不断发展,总面积大了,总产量多了,但养殖环境有好有坏、养殖户技术水平有高有低,导致市面上大闸蟹的质量参差不齐,印象中高大上的大闸蟹似乎有些往堕落的方向发展了,价格越卖越低,规格越来越软,市场越来越乱,整个行业可以说是一片混沌,连有着多年养殖或者销售经验的从业人员,都感觉这一行越来越难做了,而混乱的结果,最终又会影响到养殖户的那一环。

    入秋以后大闸蟹就会陆续上市,但真正好吃的大闸蟹并不是在9月,根据大闸蟹的生活习性,一般肉好膏满的大闸蟹都要到10月份才会多起来,9月份大闸蟹上市纯粹是为了抢中秋节商机。因为中秋节大闸蟹价格都比较好,不少养殖户为了卖上好价格,明明还没能上市的大闸蟹,就强行提前上市了,这就导致了市面上出现很多质量不过关的大闸蟹,比如说腿软、肉少、膏少甚至没膏。大闸蟹提前上市并不是今年才有的,几年前就有,只是这几年有愈演愈烈的架势。

    养殖户为了多卖钱是一个方面,但不是根本的原因,根本在于市场,终端市场有这样的需求,但想吃大闸蟹的人并不知道,这个时间段的大闸蟹并不是质量最好的,但还是要尝鲜,养殖户就顺其自然地满足了这样的需求。不可否认,每年中秋前后还是有质量上乘的大闸蟹在销售,但只是少部分,大多数大闸蟹都是被“提前上市”的,质量很难有保证。另一个问题就是专卖店炒作的礼盒大闸蟹,很多专卖店提前卖“蟹券”,就是我们常说的“纸螃蟹”,蟹券价格虚标,满足一些人送礼的虚荣心,真正拿着“蟹券”去提货,有时候需要排队,有时候提到的是“打折”货,每年这样的纠纷也是从没有断绝过,以前有,现在有,以后还会有,这个怪现象永远不会消失的。

    中秋节前后几天,大闸蟹生意非常火,养殖户忙着卖蟹,市场里大闸蟹交易火热,电商物流疯狂接单,整个大闸蟹行业就是一个字,火。但其实问题很多,上面说的大闸蟹提前上市、质量不过硬,只是一个问题而已;市场里大闸蟹报价规格越来越软,从49规格到38规格、27规格、16规格、05规格、倒49规格等等,你想都不敢想。电商物流生意太火,买卖双方单子已经下了,但是没办法实现24交易成功,因为单子太多了,根本安排不过来,一些知名物流公司声称的24小时送到家,也不是绝对的靠谱,最忙的时候,48小时能送到就算不错的了。知名的物流公司尚且如此,普通的物流车就更不用说了,这就是为什么最近买卖双方交易扯皮的事情多了,和死蟹率高相比,迟点到货就不算什么事了,有业内人士告诉水产养殖网,“中秋前后死蟹多的原因主要有两个,一个就是质量不过硬,这跟养殖户提前卖蟹有关系,另一个就是中秋那几天江苏等地气温不低,一旦运输时间过长,损耗就自然而然地高了。如果说到了10月份,大闸蟹普遍不错了,那时候温度不高,运输时间长点问题不会太大的”。

    质量决定价格,在任何一个行业都是这样,一分价钱一分货。今年早期上市的大多数大闸蟹质量不理想,是价格高开低走的一个主要原因。小编在中秋节前走访过一些大型的水产市场,普遍的反应就是货不算少、但好货少,有的档口来者不拒,不管什么质量,只要你卖蟹,只要价格你接受,都给你收了;有的档口对质量卡的紧一些,质量差的不收,差蟹夹在好蟹里也混不掉,挑出来直接打回。这个跟不同档口的走货渠道不同有关系,有的档口走外地市场层层分货,经过好几个环节一倒腾,最次的蟹便宜到你不敢想象,到最后就直接被“处理价”处理了;有的档口走专卖店或者直接进餐饮,采购方给的价格高,对质量要求高。

    节前大闸蟹质量不理想,导致价格在上市之后不断下滑,养殖户提前卖蟹抢中秋市场也是价格下滑的一个原因。目前主要是江苏地区大闸蟹在上市,尤其是苏中地区上市量大。价格不好的时候,一些档口老板会跟养殖户打个招呼,少上点少上点,这个提醒很好,但是没有用。比如说以前一个地区有一百个养殖户,现在是一千个养殖户,人多了力量大,但人多了心更散,档口老板还会提示少上点少上点,但养殖户张三听了李四不听,李四听了王五不听,总有些要上货的养殖户你是挡不住的。再加上现在一个市场里做生意的人多了,有些人做生意不地道,乱定规格乱出价,市场就容易乱。市场也是可以干预的,如果出现乱象了,有地方政府出面干预,有市场管理方规范乱象,那也是可以的,但是这几年在规格越来越软的情况下,也有一些市场硬性规定,必须49规格交易,还郑重其事地出通知到处张贴,但是用不了几天,38规格27规格都出来了,之前的所谓干预,看起来就是个笑话。

    再说这个“蟹业雪崩”的事情。其实往年都会有类似的情况,只是看起来今年好像更厉害点,但如果套用那个“节后三天跌”的规律,这两天的大闸蟹价格暴跌也不难理解,更何况在节前就一直在掉价,因为上市的蟹太多了,中秋小长假最后一天,很多市场档口需求量减少,但上来的蟹太多了,价格就守不住底线了,一些市场一些档口干脆就暂停收蟹、临时歇业。高淳水产市场62号档口经营户王强告诉水产养殖网,节后价格掉的厉害,估计还会再掉两天,但不会像昨天到今天掉的那么猛,应该有四五天的缓冲期,然后价格还有反弹的希望,估计涨价要到20号以后,“从这阵子养殖户卖蟹的情况来看,今年的产量整体看起来还是不错的,最终的产量数据还要再卖一段时间才能有数,现在就是大概预估一下”。

    在大闸蟹上市之前,据初步了解,今年几个主产区大闸蟹的养殖情况总体还是不错的,很多一线的朋友都认为今年的产量会比去年高,再加上养殖面积的增加,今年大闸蟹的总供应量又会上一个新高。量多了价格就会比较危险,尽管有一些人对比了今年和去年同期的价格,光从字面上的数据来看,今年的价格比去年高,但大闸蟹这个品种,一天里的价格都会变化好几次,对比几天甚至更久的价格走势,具体有多大的意义呢?在大闸蟹这个行业里,养殖户是生产者,养殖户决定了今年会有多少大闸蟹上市,会有什么样质量的蟹上市,但市场又时刻左右着养殖户,今年的市场和去年一样吗?差别太多了,这个就没办法多说了。

    这几年终端市场对于大闸蟹的追捧有减无增,老百姓对于大闸蟹质量的要求,更多于对某些品牌的盲目追捧,这是因为以前热捧某些品牌,是因为“灰色送礼”的需要,现在即便还有送礼,也更重视质量,更重视口感之类的。即便是抛开现在不断提倡的生态绿色安全等口号,老百姓对于大闸蟹的追求,已经逐渐回到的最原始的需求上来了,所以这也给一线的养殖户提了个醒,什么蟹卖什么价,决定市场价格的是消费者,不是养多少蟹市场都能消化掉的,不是什么质量的蟹都会能卖出好价格的,尽量控制成本的情况下,尽量养出好蟹,这才有可能赚到最大的利润。好蟹卖不出好价,那是因为渠道不好,试着重新寻找新的渠道就可以了;但差蟹想卖出好价,除了坑人,实在想不出来更好的办法。

    作者:XXX;来源:大闸蟹价格网;转载本文仅为传播更多信息为目的,并不表示本网认可文中作者观点。若转载文章作者有认为本网有不妥之处,请致电本网010-51289506联系,本网将立即与您磋商并解决相关事宜。

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