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    农产品走势趋于分化棕榈油中长期仍看涨

    市场分析 2020-02-14 155 0 0
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    1月下旬新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情,引发国际市场对我国需求和经济的担忧,春节期间多数农产品外盘期货表现疲弱,加之短期国内市场避险情绪发酵,多数国内农产品期货主力合约在2月3日开盘后大幅跳空,棕榈油和鸡蛋领跌,封于跌停板,随后多数品种出现修复性回升。 近期,农产品表现突出,油脂油料更是受到市场的关注,那么,疫情对农产品的影响有多大?油脂油料基本面是否发生了变化?玉米今年是否会出现短缺的情况?新浪期货特邀瑞达研究院农产品小组,为您详细解读! 新浪期货:疫情对农产品的影响有多大?和2003年的非典相比呢? 瑞达研究院农产品小组:1月下旬新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情,引发国际市场对我国需求和经济的担忧,春节期间多数农产品外盘期货表现疲弱,加之短期国内市场避险情绪发酵,除了玉米、粳米等少数品种外,多数国内农产品期货主力合约在2月3日开盘后大幅跳空,棕榈油和鸡蛋领跌,封于跌停板。不过疫情带来的负面情绪对农产品期货市场影响期间较短,多数品种价格随后表现出修复性回升,走势回归基本面所主导。当然,疫情对农产品部分品种的供需影响犹存,且不尽然相同,主要体现在消费需求、企业复工时间和交通运输等方面,特别对油脂油料、鸡蛋等品种影响较大,因此预期品种走势将趋于分化,未来若疫情得到控制,部分品种之间的强弱关系可能发生扭转。2003年的非典发生期间经济处于复苏阶段,整体来说,对多数农产品的影响相对有限。 新浪期货:目前棕榈油已连跌4日,基本面发生了什么变化吗?油脂板块后续还有哪些投资机会?驱动是什么? 瑞达研究院农产品小组:据马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)公布的数据显示,马棕1月产量符合预期,出口不及预期,马棕库存虽然继续减少,但略高于预期,报告整体中性略偏空,给予国内油脂市场回调压力。此外,由于新冠肺炎疫情导致民众居家隔离、开工开学延迟,国内餐饮行业遇冷,国内油脂中包装产品消费在疫情期间将遭遇明显冲击,袭扰市场情绪,导致棕榈油回调程度加深。 从中长期来看,马棕1月产量降至2015-16年同期低位水平,进一步证实减产,加之马棕库存回落至2017年同期低位,以及近期市场传闻印度向尼泊尔发放精炼棕榈液油进口许可,未来马印关系或有所缓和,均对棕榈油价格形成一定的驱动力。后期如果疫情得到有效控制的话,油脂需求可能出现深V型反弹,届时油脂的上涨趋势仍延续,此次下跌可能只是上涨过程中的一次深度回调。 新浪期货:二月份的美农报告对大豆和豆粕价格有哪些影响?豆类品种基本面如何? 瑞达研究院农产品小组:美国农业部在2月份月度供需报告中对2019/20年美豆期末库存预估下调0.5亿蒲式耳至 4.25亿蒲式耳,低于原先市场预期的4.43亿蒲式耳,主要因为调高中国进口需求。与此同时,USDA调高巴西大豆产量预估200万吨至1.25亿吨,维持阿根廷产量,亦上调全球期末库存219万吨至9886万吨。在本次报告中,美豆出口上调体现了贸易成果,美国大豆库存预估低于市场预期,对美国大豆期价提供支持,加之市场对肺炎疫情得到有效控制的乐观情绪升温,美豆期价短期持续回升,提振豆一期价再创新高,豆二和豆粕温和升高,不过后期还需警惕获利了结导致回落风险。 国产大豆基层余粮较少,而且产销地之间交通运输受疫情影响,优质大豆供应偏紧。节前豆粕中下游采购谨慎,备货普遍不足,疫情快速蔓延令中下游节后担心后续供应,截止2月7日当周,国内沿海主要地区油厂豆粕总库存量32.31万吨,较前一周的35.6万吨减少3.29万吨,降幅在9.24%,较去年同期64.88万吨减少50.20%。受疫情影响,山东、广东、江苏等主要大豆压榨地区复工延期,短期内豆粕供应减少,库存继续下降,处于14年以来的最低值,为豆粕价格提供支撑。油厂开工延迟,豆油供应下降,但是疫情对餐饮业的打击,导致原本处于淡季的油脂消费更加低迷,节后豆油库存增加,不过当前仍处于历史同期中等偏低水平。截止2月7日,国内豆油商业库存总量89.69万吨,比前一周增加4.88万吨,较上月同期减少0.63万吨,较去年同期下降41.34万吨。 新浪期货:豆粕需求方面疫情对饲料需求的影响有多大? 瑞达研究院农产品小组:节前中下游采购谨慎,备货普遍不足,而且疫情导致供应端油厂开工时间延后,节后终端消费端补库意愿较强,短时间内豆粕成交量有所放大。为防控新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情,国内有多省市全面禁售活禽,影响市场出栏情况和补栏情绪,待中下游补库完成,高成交量难以长期为继,预期后市饲料需求表现相对疲弱。中长期来看,饲料需求的增长关键还在于生猪养殖行业的恢复,在政府政策支持和高养殖利润的刺激下,生猪养殖处于长恢复周期,生猪饲料需求趋于长期增长状态。 新浪期货:豆粕5月和9月,南北美大豆的价格是否会有差异呢? 瑞达研究院农产品小组:豆粕5月的原料供应对应2019年上市大豆和2020年上半年上市的南美大豆。2019年美国大豆大幅减产,而且在美国农业部最新报告中,USDA下调2019/20年度美豆期末库存预估幅度超过市场预期,美豆价格受到支撑。与此同时,由于前期贸易摩擦影响,旧作大豆库存有待进一步消化,上方空间同样受制。南美而言,目前处于生长收割阶段,近期巴西地区由于降雨阻碍产区田间作业,巴西新豆收割进展缓慢,利好巴西大豆价格。但美国农业部在2月份供需报告中依旧调升该国大豆产量预估,市场对巴西丰产预期并未发生改变,未来价格可能承压,与美豆价格或产生一定差异。对于豆粕9月而言,2020年美国大豆产量预期变动和南美大豆供应对其价格影响较大,目前市场预期2020年美国大豆种植面积增加,但是由于未来天气对产量的影响难以预估以及后续贸易摩擦存在一定不确定性,因此目前难以判断南北美价格差异。 新浪期货:玉米今年是否会出现短缺的情况?

    瑞达研究院农产品小组:玉米港口库存数据显示饲料需求偏弱的背景下,贸易商大量囤货的意愿不高。目前,玉米进口仍受配额管制,不过协议并未提及DDGS“双反”政策相关措施,未来DDGS的进口能开放到何种程度仍是一个未知数,相对确定的是,这条附录是放开DDGS进口的一个积极信号,因此玉米替代品进口担忧仍存。目前而言,预期玉米产需相对平衡,未来需要关注生猪存栏恢复进展、国家玉米抛储量、以及是否放开DDGS进口限制等因素影响。

    来源:新浪财经;作者:瑞达研究院农产品小组;农产品期货网转载本文仅为传播更多信息为目的,并不表示本网认可文中作者观点。若转载文章作者有认为本网有不妥之处,请致电本网010-51289506联系,本网将立即与您磋商并解决相关事宜。

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